Summary: | Employing a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Spain, this study aims to characterise
the impact of the financial crisis on agriculture, with particular focus on the divergent impacts
on specific agricultural activities. The results have broad implications for neighbouring Mediterranean
EU economies given similarities in the relative size and structure of primary agriculture, and in the macroeconomic
difficulties they face.
Comparing with a baseline scenario, it is estimated that the crisis induces a cumulative contraction of
8 per cent in Spanish agricultural activity by 2015, with concomitant reductions in real farming incomes
of 9 per cent. Notwithstanding, in accordance with previous literature and a priori expectations, this
contraction is notably smaller than in non-food sectors. Comparing between agricultural activities, the
supply response to the crisis varies considerably owing to differing input intensities and sales destinations. The highest supply responsiveness occurs in relatively capital or unskilled labour intensive sectors,
or export orientated sectors; whilst land intensive sectors are more resistant to the economic downturn.
Finally, we find greater income inequality across Spanish households, with utility from food consumption
falling 10% in the poorest segment, compared with only 1% in the wealthiest. |