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Modelling almond Spanish prices

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Authors: S. Ekinci, L.M. Albisu, M. Ameur, T. Ait Salem, G.V. Cohen, J.C. Gómez García, R.J. Nuñez Pastori, I. Tekelioglu
Issue: 94V-2 (89-103)
Topic: Plant Production
Keywords: prices, almond, Spain

Spanish almonds are basically cultivated in Spain on dry land. Rainfall and climatological conditions, like frosts, have a great influence on yields and consequently on production. As a result there is a great variability, among seasons, of the quantity supplied in the market which drives to high price variations. On top of it there is a limited quantity stocked which does not diminish price variations.
In this work, based on existent models in the literature, estimations have been carried out with new observations. The period of observations goes from 1970 to 1994 for estimation purposes and there have been predicted prices for 1995, 1996 and 1997. One model deals for estimation purposes with almond farmers prices in Spain and, the other, is concerned about export prices for Spanish almonds. In both cases, the same variables have been utilised as they were in the original models and predicted prices have been calculated at constant and current prices.
We can see the great influence over farmers prices that have variables, such as, Spanish almond production. United States almond production and hazelnut farmers price. With respect to the price paid to Spanish almond exports prices, the most important variables are the exported quantity of Spanish almonds and the exchange rate.

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